Geopolitical Contest for Horn of Africa Ports and Military Bases Poses Security Risks

In an analysis by Abdul Mohammed, strategic ports and military bases stretching from Djibouti and Berbera to Assab and Port Sudan have become the central focal points of regional geopolitical contests. The author highlights that while foreign investment can be helpful, opaque agreements and exclusive military deals risk transforming localized disputes into broader international conflicts. External alliances fail to guarantee durable security because the commitments of foreign patrons inevitably shift alongside their own national interests. Regarding Sudan, neither the national army nor the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) can govern effectively through force alone, and a prolonged conflict makes a de facto territorial partition increasingly likely. Additionally, the text warns that a renewed war involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, and armed forces in the Tigray Regional State would be significantly more fragmented and complex than the 1998 conflict. Finally, the analysis notes that Israel's potential recognition of Somaliland in December 2025 risks reducing statehood into a mere security transaction.