Shift in Alliances in Northern Ethiopia Conflict and its Implications

The alliances in the Northern Ethiopia conflict have shifted significantly compared to the 2020-2022 period. Previously, Amhara militias and Eritrean forces fought alongside the federal government against the TPLF. However, following the Pretoria Agreement, these former allies have either clashed with the government or adopted a hostile stance, while the TPLF has paradoxically moved toward rapprochement with its former enemies, including Eritrea and the Fano militants. Political analysts suggest this realignment complicates the current security landscape. While observers note the federal government maintains a superior military position, the internal divisions within the TPLF and the emergence of new fronts, such as Fano, have created significant political and military risks. Experts like Dr. Bizuna Yimanu emphasize that despite these shifts, the Ethiopian state maintains the dominant military capacity, though the conflict's internal dynamics remain volatile.