Analysis: Can the TPLF Sustain Another Insurgency in Tigray?

An analysis examines whether the TPLF can sustain another insurgency in Tigray as federal and allied forces advance deep into the region toward Mekelle. Battlefield sources indicate that while the TPLF suffered significant casualties and weapons losses, its command structure remains largely intact despite a rapid retreat from conventional warfare. The article notes that the TPLF may shift toward a prolonged insurgency supported from bases across the Eritrean and Sudanese borders. Recent diplomatic tensions, including Addis Ababa severing diplomatic relations with Asmara and accusing Eritrea and Egypt of supporting rebel alliances, highlight the regional dimensions of the conflict. However, both Eritrea and Egypt deny these allegations. The analysis emphasizes that while external sanctuary and supply options may have increased, the domestic mobilization environment within Tigray has become much weaker compared to late 2020.