Analysis: TPLF Insurgency Prospects, Federal State Capacity, and Challenges in Tigray

A detailed analysis outlines the complex factors shaping the ongoing conflict and potential insurgency in Tigray. External regional actors in Sudan, the Nile, and the Red Sea have strategic interests, though external support depends heavily on accessing viable supply corridors through northern and western Tigray. For the senior TPLF leadership, continuing the fight has become a survival strategy to avoid prosecution or retribution from both the federal government and internal rivals. However, the group faces severe internal hurdles, including declining public support, widespread war fatigue, allegations of forced recruitment, and alienation of the Tigrayan intelligentsia. Conversely, while the federal government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is overstretched by active insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia, it maintains a decisive military advantage through advanced drone, surveillance, and precision-strike capabilities that negate traditional terrain advantages. Ultimately, while popular support for the TPLF has eroded significantly since the 2020–22 war, this disillusionment does not automatically convert into support for the federal government.