Analysis Warns of Long-Term Risks in Mobilizing Former Rebels as Counterinsurgents

A detailed analytical piece highlights the short-term benefits and severe long-term risks of the Ethiopian government organizing former rebels—such as the Amhara Peace Force, Gadaa Commando, Tigray Peace Force, and Raya Guard—into counterinsurgency units. In the short term, these forces provide vital insider intelligence, tactical access, and exploit divisions within insurgent groups like Fano. However, the analysis warns that relying on armed formations with strong ethnic and regional identities poses severe security threats to a country already dealing with unresolved territorial and communal disputes. Allegations of abuses against civilians by the Gadaa Commando and violent clashes involving the Tigray Peace Force around Alamata illustrate these immediate frictions. Over time, these groups may develop autonomous political ambitions, commanding loyal fighters and using weapons as political leverage, potentially becoming tomorrow's new rebels. To mitigate these risks, the author urges the government to enforce strict rehabilitation, place the forces under professional multi-ethnic command, maintain rigorous oversight, and heavily regulate their weaponry.