Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea: Analysis of Potential War Scenarios

The risk of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has escalated as Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) push toward the border following recent battlefield successes against the TPLF. Diplomatic efforts, including calls from the U.S. for de-escalation and a return to the 2018 peace framework, are attempting to prevent wider conflict. Analysts suggest that if military confrontation occurs, Ethiopia's air and drone superiority could test Eritrean defenses significantly. Potential outcomes range from a brief conflict to a prolonged war, depending on whether Eritrea offers concessions regarding TPLF sanctuary or chooses to fight. The situation remains volatile, with regional stability in the Horn of Africa hanging in the balance.