Analysis of Potential Ethiopian Military Strategies Regarding Eritrea

This analysis explores four potential scenarios regarding the standoff between Ethiopia and Eritrea, focusing on regional stability and maritime access. It examines the possibility of Eritrean military commanders removing President Isaias Afwerki following a military defeat to negotiate with Addis Ababa. The text also considers the risk of a lingering insurgency if the regime collapses or retreats to the mountains. Furthermore, it evaluates Ethiopia’s strategic interest in the Red Sea, debating whether capturing ports or using diplomatic leverage—potentially through Somaliland—is a more sustainable path than direct occupation. Finally, it questions whether an offensive on Asmara is necessary or if the mere threat could force a regime change or negotiation.